The United States is watching the political deadlock and bloodshed in Yemen with increasing alarm and with what analysts see as a certain powerlessness before a growing void that Al-Qaeda can fill.
US President Barack Obama called Wednesday on Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh to "immediately" honor his promise to transfer power in a deal with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states that would see him leave in 30 days.
However, just days after he balked at signing it, Saleh shows no sign of following through and fierce fighting between dissident tribesmen and security forces has left scores of people killed.
With increasing alarm, the US State Department announced Wednesday it was ordering family members of US government employees and certain non-emergency personnel to leave Yemen.
It warned Americans "of the high security threat level in Yemen due to terrorist activities and civil unrest," referring both to opposition-government clashes and the presence in Yemen of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
"The Department urges US citizens not to travel to Yemen. US citizens currently in Yemen should depart while commercial transportation is available," it said.
"Coming out of this weekend, there has been an uptick in violence. We're obviously watching it closely. Clearly of paramount importance is the safety and well-being of American citizens," a State Department official said earlier.
"And all I can say is we're kind of assessing it on an hour by hour basis. If we feel we need to move to the next level, we will," the official told reporters on the condition of anonymity hours before the US pullout.
The ordered departures were a marked shift since March -- two months into pro-democracy protests inspired by those in Tunisia and Egypt -- when the United States authorized personnel to leave voluntarily.
Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer who is now a terrorism specialist at the Brookings Institution, said the "US and Europe have (a) huge stake in preventing the most populous state in the Arabian peninsula from disintegrating.
"Chaos will only benefit AQAP," Riedel told AFP in an email exchange.
However, Riedel said Washington was powerless to push Saleh from power and pave the way for a democratic transition.
"Zero. Without force zero," he said when asked whether Washington would have any impact withholding some or all of the 300 million dollars in annual military and development aid it is now giving Yemen.
A senior State Department official did not rule out using such leverage.
"My understanding is not yet," the official said when asked if Washington was considering withholding aid. "I just think that as we go forward, I don't want to take any options off the table."
For now, he said, "we're continuing to try to talk directly to him (Saleh) and to convince him that he needs to do what's best for his people."
Christopher Boucek, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, was only slightly less pessimistic than Riedel.
"The US has very little leverage to influence events in Yemen," he told AFP in an email exchange.
"That said, Washington still has not sent a strong unequivocal message to the regime that Saleh must step down and this political crisis must end. There is still power in American leadership and moral action," Boucek said.
"Collectively -- the US, western allies, Saudi Arabia -- can bring a lot of pressure to bear, and all international actors must speak with one voice on Yemen," he said.
"The longer this goes on, the worse conditions get and the more destabilized Yemen becomes," he said.
"If our sole concern is security, ct (counter-terrorism) and AQAP, we shouldn't be deluded into believing that the Yemeni government is interested in fighting terror right now. They are focused on staying in power," he said.
State Department spokesman Mark Toner said, however, that "my understanding is that our counter-terrorism cooperation does continue."
US President Barack Obama called Wednesday on Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh to "immediately" honor his promise to transfer power in a deal with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states that would see him leave in 30 days.
However, just days after he balked at signing it, Saleh shows no sign of following through and fierce fighting between dissident tribesmen and security forces has left scores of people killed.
With increasing alarm, the US State Department announced Wednesday it was ordering family members of US government employees and certain non-emergency personnel to leave Yemen.
It warned Americans "of the high security threat level in Yemen due to terrorist activities and civil unrest," referring both to opposition-government clashes and the presence in Yemen of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
"The Department urges US citizens not to travel to Yemen. US citizens currently in Yemen should depart while commercial transportation is available," it said.
"Coming out of this weekend, there has been an uptick in violence. We're obviously watching it closely. Clearly of paramount importance is the safety and well-being of American citizens," a State Department official said earlier.
"And all I can say is we're kind of assessing it on an hour by hour basis. If we feel we need to move to the next level, we will," the official told reporters on the condition of anonymity hours before the US pullout.
The ordered departures were a marked shift since March -- two months into pro-democracy protests inspired by those in Tunisia and Egypt -- when the United States authorized personnel to leave voluntarily.
Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer who is now a terrorism specialist at the Brookings Institution, said the "US and Europe have (a) huge stake in preventing the most populous state in the Arabian peninsula from disintegrating.
"Chaos will only benefit AQAP," Riedel told AFP in an email exchange.
However, Riedel said Washington was powerless to push Saleh from power and pave the way for a democratic transition.
"Zero. Without force zero," he said when asked whether Washington would have any impact withholding some or all of the 300 million dollars in annual military and development aid it is now giving Yemen.
A senior State Department official did not rule out using such leverage.
"My understanding is not yet," the official said when asked if Washington was considering withholding aid. "I just think that as we go forward, I don't want to take any options off the table."
For now, he said, "we're continuing to try to talk directly to him (Saleh) and to convince him that he needs to do what's best for his people."
Christopher Boucek, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, was only slightly less pessimistic than Riedel.
"The US has very little leverage to influence events in Yemen," he told AFP in an email exchange.
"That said, Washington still has not sent a strong unequivocal message to the regime that Saleh must step down and this political crisis must end. There is still power in American leadership and moral action," Boucek said.
"Collectively -- the US, western allies, Saudi Arabia -- can bring a lot of pressure to bear, and all international actors must speak with one voice on Yemen," he said.
"The longer this goes on, the worse conditions get and the more destabilized Yemen becomes," he said.
"If our sole concern is security, ct (counter-terrorism) and AQAP, we shouldn't be deluded into believing that the Yemeni government is interested in fighting terror right now. They are focused on staying in power," he said.
State Department spokesman Mark Toner said, however, that "my understanding is that our counter-terrorism cooperation does continue."
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